I think the first major shot over the bow for me was when I went in to get my youngest daughter a new phone.  She landed on the Droid X.  (I know – I’m turning her into a bit of a techie).  We looked at the shared usage across three different phones.  We were on a 2100 minute plan and the amount of time used between three phone for the prior month…  107 minutes.  Turns out Verizon doesn’t have a 200 minute shared minute plan.  The lowest was 700 however it won’t be long till we can go to 100% data devices with a limited amount of Voip usage and bye-bye will be the cell phone as we now know it.

The next major shot was an article I read a bit earlier today: http://www.thinkbigworksmall.com/mypage/archive/1/52960/.  Essentially these guys who are internet marketing savvy called 23 real estate agents on their phones until they actually talked to an actual agent.  Ironically the agent hung up on them, however the point is that no one is answering their phone.

Now I was thinking about my own phone.  I work in a virtual office which means that everyone I work with has pretty good access to me.  IM (Google Chat), My actual office (3D – in our office), email, etc…  I have a pretty good idea of who is who.  I’ve also switched my cell phone number to my Google Voice number with call screening capabilities (love this feature).  Bottom line is unless I know you and have a good reason to want to talk to you, I am more then likely going to send you to voice mail and wait till Google Voice emails me the Voicemail with a text transcript of the message you left.  Scanning the voicemail text is way more efficient for me then listening to every voicemail.

I know I can hear some of you now saying that the voicemail to text feature on Google sucks!.  Generally you are correct, however it does pick up enough key words and phrases most of the time to actually be useful enough to know if I even want to listen to the voicemail in the first place.

Ultimately if you think of the Venn Diagrams which are our lives, what we are looking for are those people who overlap our lives in a meaningful way.  Those are the people we want to talk to and communicate with.  The Social Web really makes this a significant reality.  We are all working independently on making our mark on this thing we call life and we all know that its easier when we are working with like minded individuals who are supporting each others initiatives in such a way that we all get their faster.  This overlapping of common vectors is what catapults us from the masses to icons.  What we don’t want is distraction or significant competing interests along the way.  Using things like the Social Web and protecting our dreams and goals from being misdirected trampled by “telemarketers”, “sales people”, “mother in-laws”, etc…  is essential for the upward mobility we all desire.

The Social Web (I include text messaging in this) really changes the game.  Those who are trusted with our contact info and are part of our circle of friends are those who are worth communicating with.  In many cases we will be communicating with them via every other method then the phone.

My personal belief is that phone usage in the future will be the way we call to ask for directions to someones house.  Outside of that…  It’s all the Social Web.

Of course I got caught up in this as well.  I tend to joke that I am a good predictor of the market meaning that if I’m buying it probably means the market has topped and if I’m selling then the market has probably bottomed.  Having bought a home in the spring of 2006 and looking at what that same home is worth today we are $100,000 below what we paid for it and that number seems to be going lower.

So where does Henry Dent come in.

In the late 80′s and early 90′s I was a stock broker.  In fact I got my Series 7 and 63 in 1987 right after the crash in October.  Over time I developed my own personal trading strategies centered around “CANSLIM” and started to pay attention to trends etc…  At that time I read a book, “The Great Depression of 1990″ which was pretty intriguing.  The suggestion was that every 70 years worldwide there was a depression.  At the time I didn’t see the fundamentals that would lead mean to getting out of the market entirely even though certainly there were some events like the Dot Com melt down in 2000 (which I was a bit of a casualty of).  I tended to justify the lack of a major recession or depression based on an active Fed, the Internet, and the ability to electronically move stuff around as necessary.  In my mind this created a justification for the price run ups on homes.  With the internet it seemed that home buyers could now use the internet to search and as such it opened up home ownership to a group of people who before may have been intimidated by the home buying process.  Of course in this run up it became painfully obvious that interest rates being low as well as this ease of signing and buying a home and getting a mortgage was a bit of a house of cards.

After 2008 it seemed obvious that the crash in prices was of our own making, however Henry Dent in “The Great Depression Ahead” written last year has for the last 30 years been predicting markets relatively accurately by tracking not so much by measuring the bubbles, which obviously there are quite a few that are deflating, but more tracked demographics based on “peak spending”.  Peak Spending in his research and models tends to take place in the US around age 48.5.  This coincides with kids going off to college, the purchase of additional automobiles for these same kids, having recently purchased the largest home they are going to buy etc…  After age 48.5 as the kids are becoming more independent (earning their own way) retirement thoughts really start to kick in.  Downsizing, selling the extra car, saving more, spending less, and being generally speaking more responsible kicks in.  This important shift in spending patterns ultimately keeps consumers wallets relatively shut not so much because of the economy which might exaggerate the reduction of spending but just because its a time in life where relaxing and staying home without large extra expenditures becomes the norm rather then the exception.

After reading the book and subscribing to the Henry Dent Newsletter over the last couple of weeks there have been a couple of updates sent out talking about where the markets are going.  An interesting observation was that in Henry Dents research along with another researcher Rick Davis we could be in for a bit of a surprise come July 30th relative to GDP numbers.  There is something very appealing to the research that Rick Davis does relative to Consumer Metrics and that is that he looks at essentially eCommerce data using data gathering services similar to Compete.com and Alexa.com to track consumer behavior online and has determined that in aggregate there has in all likelihood been a significant drop in consumer spending over the last measurable quarter.  His metrics suggest that GDP could if they follow his Consumer Metrics model actually have decreased in the 2nd quarter and Henry Dent is predicting that GDP growth will come in at about 1% growth vs 4 – 5% as many are predicting.  There are a couple of important thoughts here.  After coming out of a recession we should be in the double digit growth rather then -1 – 1% growth which as some people have said even if we aren’t in a recession it certainly feels like a recession because we haven’t bounced back.

Now bring this forward to Thursday…  In the HSDent.com newsletter update there was a prediction that market would rally one more day and that the down would test 10410 and that next week July 26 – 30th marked what would be the most likely turning point in the market and over the next month to 4 months we should see a significant crash in the dow and with it an admission from banks and other institutions including potentially government institutions and quasi govt institutions like Fannie and FreddieMac that a significant write down on housing assets and the underlying mortgages are in order.

I’ve had a sinking feeling in my gut that late 2010 could bring us back to something similar to late 2008 for a few months and even though there is exuberance in the market, we will see over the next few weeks what actually takes place relative to some of these theories.

Anyway I figured it would make sense to post this today, July 24, 2010 to some extent to see what happens in the market.  I have taken a position in my Roth IRA having sold my PCLN stock and purchased a number of shares of SH which is essentially the purchase of a short position on the S&P 500.  I hope that Henry Dent is wrong because it would definitely impact our real estate business in terms of volumes etc…  however it seems that a hedge makes sense by using the Roth IRA as a method maintaining some value if the market falls off a cliff in the next few weeks.

You’ll understand it by reading the following thread between me and the Customer Service Rep @ SwipeBids.  So far I have had to change my credit card number, I’m disputing the charges and reporting them to as many law enforcement agencies as I can think of.

info: Please wait for a site operator to respond.
info: You are now chatting with ‘Nichole’
Nichole: Thank you for visiting SwipeBids. We are here to help you win auctions, save money and have a great time. Who am I speaking with?
you: This is Glenn Sanford, username: glennsanford. I registered on the site earlier tonight and it looks like in my account that I was charged $150 for “300 Bonus Bids”…
you: The site didn’t indicate that I would be charged $150 so I’m confused if that was the value of the 300 bonus bids or if I was charged that amount.
Nichole: Could you please provide me with your full name and email address, so that I can pull up your details?
you: I certainly wouldn’t have signed up and spent the $150 just trying out the site and my bidding history suggest that I only used 30 bids.
you: Glenn Sanford, email address: xxxxx@gmail.com
Nichole: Please wait while I check your order details in our system.
Nichole: You have been charged $150.00 for 1-Year Membership (Include 300 Start-Up Bids)
you: That wasn’t clear… I didn’t want to do that…
Nichole: Please try to review our terms and condition that you have agreed while sign up.
you: I went through each screen that had me wait 10 seconds per screen to move on…
you: Can you reverse this or do I need to take it up with my credit card company.
Nichole: Customer satisfaction is our number one priority; this is why we offer each one of our customers a 30 day money back guarantee. We are so confident that you will win auctions with SwipeBids.com  that if you don’t win anything, we will refund you the entire sign up fee!

Also, please CLICK HERE to see the details that were stated on your checkout page as you confirmed your original purchase.
you: Let’s go with the Money Back Guarantee… I totally missed this and certainly didn’t intend to spend $150 today just checking out the site.
Nichole: To ensure no refund request is  ever missed, please CLICK HERE to download the refund request form. You have up to 90 days to fill out and mail  the form to our accounting department.
you: It says I can’t claim a credit for 30 days. I just signed up and want to cancel immediately.
Nichole: Sorry, but for refund you have to follow the above steps and you have to qualify also in order to get the refund.
you: Here’s the deal… I feel like the site deliberately misdirected me… I’m not going to wait 30 days. I’m going to start a dispute on my credit card immediately, send a note to a friend of mine who works in the Attorney Generals Office to see if they have had complaints and I’m big in the Social Networking arena and make sure that the 1000′s of people in my network know that I feel like I have been hoodwinked… I’m not sure how this got past me but I’m sure your company has done enough A/B Testing to figure out how to get people through this. I am also copying this text chat thread to keep in my records…
Nichole: Please CLICK HERE to see the details that were stated on your checkout page as you confirmed your  original purchase. This checkout page and its disclosures have been approved by  our Attorneys, and comply with strict credit card regulations issued by the  banks to ensure the charges cannot be disputed. All you need to do if fill out  the refund request and mail it to us; it’s that easy to get your refund!
you: I’d prefer you take care of this right now for me and save both of us (your company and whoever is going to have to deal with this) and me from having to go through this exercise.
Nichole: Unfortunately, I am unable to  assist you any further. Please take the time to follow our incredibly easy 30  day money back guarantee CLICK HERE.
you: That doesn’t mean that I can’t stir up more trouble then this is worth for you. Please immediately credit can cancel my account. If necessary pull a supervisor into this.
you: not you as a person but you as a company.
you: Nothing directed at you personally as I know you are just trying to do your job.
Nichole: I am sorry, you have subscribed to our services and you have to follow the money back guarantee policy to get refund.
you: Have you forwarded this to a supervisor yet? If not, it would be a lot easier for everyone if you moved this up the chain…
Nichole: Please try to understand that there is no option other than Money Back Guarantee to claim your money. So I recommend you to qualify the steps and have your refund.
you: Just so you know and you can Google me, I am the CEO of a Technology Company and I’m a bit perplexed at not being able to immediately get a refund…
you: I don’t have time to deal with jumping through using up bids… Either get this fixed immediately or folks on my payroll will get this done just sheerly on principal.
Nichole: Sorry, but we don’t have the authority to refund you.
you: Then get someone who does have the authority involved…
you: I know they exist and they probably are working in a windowed office within footsteps of where you are typing.
Nichole: Sorry, but you have to qualify the steps then only you can get your refund.
you: Okay… Just remember that I did give you an opportunity to make this right… This chat thread will be posted prominently in a number of different places with your company’s name and my perception of what I just went through. We’ll see what the court of public opinion (and future customers who might have used your service think of this).
Nichole: Is there anything else I can help you with today?
you: Yes… I would like you to refund my account… It seems that I was charged $150 that needs to be reversed.
Nichole: Sorry, but we can’t do it, only you can get your refund after qualifying.
you: I’ve already found a site where a number of people have got a refund from their credit card company and it sounds like there are already a number of complaints against your company. I should have looked here first… Again it looks like the Credit Card Companies are doing reversals which makes it look bad for you taking credit cards.
Nichole: There is no option other than Money Back Guarantee to claim your money.
you: Maybe, but it looks like a few people have had their credit card companies dispute and reverse the charges… That looks bad for you each time someone does this and makes your rates to clear everyones transactions go up.
you: Calling Customer Service @ My Credit Card Issuer now…
Nichole: We don’t have any dispute cases, instead we have a lot of happy customer.
you: How long does it take for the charge to go from authorized to fully charged? My credit card company already informed me that they have had to reverse charges for your company in the past but need it to go from Authorized to fully charged.
Nichole: Unfortunately, I am unable to  assist you any further. Please take the time to follow our incredibly easy 30  day money back guarantee CLICK HERE.
you: Basically in the authorized status it doesn’t mean that the funds have went out of the account yet so there isn’t anything to dispute however it could take up to 14 days for some companies to actually charge the card fully.
Nichole: You have already been charged.
you: All you have to do is tell me when the card is fully charged for the $150 so I know when to call back my credit card company. This has nothing to do with you issuing a refund this has to do with the Credit Card Company reversing the charge and making another record of it in their account about you.
you: It hasn’t cleared from the “Authorized Status” Yet… So the charge hasn’t fully completed. I assume then you clear funds at least once a day… So within 1 day I would assume, would this be correct?
you: I’m just checking in case it is a longer time frame then that.
Nichole: The charge has already been gone through.
you: Okay… I’m calling the credit card company again to see if they show it on their end. The indication was they couldn’t start the dispute process until it went from authorized to cleared and as of 10 minutes ago it hadn’t cleared yet.
Nichole: I have already explained that The charge has already been gone through.
you: Are you guys: SPHERE MEDIA LLC 906 W 400 S OREM, UT 84058
Nichole: Sorry, I didn’t get you.
you: I was just looking for where you were from… Looks like Alberta… I was born in Peace River… Know the Province well…
Nichole: Is there anything else I can help you with today?
you: Probably… Give me a few minutes, I’ll have a few more questions / observations shortly.
you: BTW: There are a lot of people on the Internet that don’t like you guys: http://www.scamraiders.com/forum/topics/swipebids-are-scam-artists
Nichole: Sorry, we are not authorized to open other sites.
you: I’m also seeing that I need to file with the Utah BBB…
you: That’s probably good for the owners because you would probably want to quit your job if you read what other people were saying about the company you work for.
you: Might want to quit anyway… It would be better to work for a quality company and not have to deal with people who know they got scammed and you having to cover for the people who write your paychecks… Really a hard place for you to have to be…
Nichole: Unfortunately, I am unable to assist you any further.
you: I can understand its not good for your emotional health… I totally get that… Again you might want to think about changing companies… Either that or they should be paying you a lot of money.
Nichole: Thank you very much for chatting with us today. We hope the rest of your day is an excellent one.
Nichole: Please feel free to come back for any further assistance.
you: Oh, Wow… I just found out that the page you sent me to is not the one I signed up on… This does look like something for the Attorney General… This was a Scam… I finally figured it out. Actually the folks at Penny Auction Watch show how you did it and the misdirection…
you: I knew I didn’t see what you showed me… Very sinister…
you: Who is Jess Willms?
you: All good information to attach to my dispute with the credit card company… I told you it would have been easier if you had just done the reversal…
you: Wow… This kid is being sued by everyone it looks like… If he’s involved with this company I guess it makes sense…
info: Your chat transcript will be sent to xxxxx@gmail.com at the end of your chat.
you: Have you done the charge reversal yet? I’m just over here digging up the dirt on you guys… You guys are now my Pet Project.
you: I actually hope you don’t do the reversal (even though I am insisting that you do)… The $150 is nothing in the whole scheme of things here… It’s the principal of it that has me steamed…
you: On my schedule: 1 – Call Credit Card Company… 2 – Blog on all the Scam sites that have already Identified this company as a full on Scam Company. 3 – Twitter / Facebook and other Social Networking posts. 4 – On Monday Call the BBB in both Utah and what looks to be Sherwood Park Alberta. Probably contact the local Chamber of Commerce as well in both locations to see if they have heard of Jesse Willms. See if there is a Class Action Lawsuit that I can become a part of.
Nichole: Okay.
you: When you get home Google “SwipeBids.com Scam”… There’s lots of great info including a post on PennyAuctionWatch.com.
you: Already have like 10 comments on my Facebook past from about 30 minutes ago.
Nichole: I have told you above we are not authorized to open other sites and I have also told you above there is no option other than Money Back Guarantee to claim your money.
Nichole: So, If you don’t want to follow then it’s okay.
you: Everyone is asking what the deal is… I’m sending them over to PennyAuctionWatch site to see the Scam in detail.
Nichole: Okay, good for you.
Nichole: Thank you very much for chatting with us today. We hope the rest of your day is an excellent one.
Nichole: Please feel free to come back for any further assistance.
you: I’m starting the first Yelp Profile for SwipeBids… Let’s just say it won’t be flattering.
Nichole: Okay.
you: About to Twitter and Call out @Swipebids on the Scam.
Nichole: Okay.
you: So far just via Social Networking this has sent out to over 2500 people so far tonight… I’m sure there are others who are going to comment and continue the threads…
Nichole: Okay.
you: Now heading over to the FTC Website to start the complaint process there: https://www.ftccomplaintassistant.gov/
you: What is your Company Address? I need it for the FTC Complaint.
Nichole: For security and privacy reasons, we are unable to disclose our exact address, but I will confirm for you that we are based out of the United States.
you: Of course if you were a legitimate company that wouldn’t be an issue as every legitimate company has no issue in releasing their actual address.
you: Of course a criminal company would need to hide.
Nichole: Sorry, but we can’t disclose personal info. to customers.
you: No worries… No information is in fact information…
you: I’ll assume Sherwood Park Alberta for at least one of the holding companies related to this.
Nichole: Okay.
Nichole: Good Bye.
you: Told you it would have been easier to do the refund. Now your heart is racing because you know your company is a Scam and you don’t like being called out on it.
Nichole: You can only get your money after qualifying.
you: I might just have to do that as well, but in the interim… FTC, BBB, FBI, Attorney General and any other legal group that I can contact in the interim just to make who ever holds onto the $150 wish they would have just returned the money in right away…
Nichole: I hope they, as we don’t have the authority to give refund.
you: Are you offshore relative to the company, meaning like India, Pakistan or somewhere else?
you: Basically have they outsourced this part to someone not really with the company.
you: Which obviously isn’t fair to you because you probably need the job.
you: Even if you spent 10 hours in the chat session the company if they didn’t return the money would still make money.
you: I have a team of developers / programmers and other talent working in Kirachi Pakistan… I hear they were getting hit by a Cyclone today… Not good.
you: I was thinking you were they…
you: Can you verify if this is the toll free number for the company: 866-389-3870
you: Nicole, What is your position? Customer Service Rep?
Nichole: To get assistance via phone, please call this number: 1-866-389-3870  (Mon – Sat  8 am – 9 pm & Sun from 10 am – 6 pm  Eastern Time).
you: Thanks… I need the phone number for the FTC Complaint. I just listed you, Nichole, as the Customer Service Rep that I chatted with…
you: Now I’m articulating the process on the web and how it was misleading… My guess is you aren’t able to actually see the sign-up process so you have to assume that the page that you send out is the page that people see when they sign-up. Just so you know… It’s not. I figure you would like to know that.
you: Here is the message I just got from the FTC Website (For Your Reference): Thank you for contacting the FTC. Your complaint has been entered into Consumer Sentinel, a secure online database available to thousands of civil and criminal law enforcement agencies worldwide. Your reference number is: 26654562
you: I know you can’t visit websites where you work however see if you can check this out: http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Canada/Edmonton/ID=1362286889
you: Synopsis… 2000 Complaints files through Christmas earlier this year just on the one guy Jesse Wilms…
you: I’m hitting the sack… I’ll be doing complaints with the Edmonton BBB tomorrow or Monday, not sure… And be contacting a bunch of other law enforcement types… Feel free to share this chat script with whoever…

First of all, As many of you know Gary Veynerchuk of WineLibrary.tv uses the term Crushing it all the time.  First of all its a great term and I love it however there are a lot of times in life that we aren’t “Crushing it”, we are waiting for others to “Crush it” for us…

As a manager it sometimes makes more sense to motivate others to do the “Crushing” however as a Micromanager, the phrase that often runs through one’s head is “I can crush it” and maybe I should.

Well recently one of my potential Crushers, who I still believe would be an awesome “Crusher” decided “Crushing it” wasn’t in the cards and decided to move on.  Ultimately that move has put me back in the “Crushing” seat…  And there are a few people that I work with who have been wondering what it would take for me to get my “Crushing” gameface back on…

Well Game On…, The Gloves are Off, and its time to play to Win…

That’s it…  Nothing more to see here folks, just a guy in Bellingham working on “Crushing it” one keystroke at a time.

The above was on the drive out to Birch Bay, driving on I-5. I switched sides that I filmed from because of lighting.

The above Vlog is taken from the Spit at Semiahmoo.

From the Patio / Deck on the North side of the Semiahmoo Resort just off Packer’s Lounge.

The above is from Horizon At Semiahmoo

My Drive back from Birch Bay / Semiahmoo. Some additional commentary on Birch Bay and The C Shop.

I posted a few weeks ago about the challenges of Short Sales however it seemed to me that putting up an additional Vlog post on the subject would make some sense as well.

Anyway check out the Vlog post.  Comments appreciated.

All the Best,

Glenn Sanford
–
Founder / CEO / REALTOR
BuyerTours Realty LLC
Direct: 360-220-1470

http://www.BuyerTours.com/

http://realestate.bellingham.net/

RT @harmonymatters: This is nifty! DM orders for coffee, drinks, food.. why not? http://tinyurl.com/dgxe9g Retailers: great idea here!
about 2 hours ago from TweetDeck

I dug into this story and this points toward how Twitter is being used in a community and has created buzz not to mention increasing the business of a coffee shop.

I read the article as well the original blog post that started the Tweets and ReTweets.

Essentially a local coffee shop in Houston got into the Twittersphere and has been receiving a significant number of orders not to mention a significant local following via Twitter.

Check out the article, check out my Vlog above and let me know what you think.

Glenn

Expect more videos to come.

Shortly after that we signed up for Netflix which has a lot of Blue Ray disks and for the $18/month it seemed better then going down to the video store and finding out that movies that we wanted to watch were already checked out.

Netflix on the website talked about “Watch Instantly” but I don’t really like watching movies at my desk in the home office so I didn’t take advantage of the Watch Instantly option.  A couple of months ago it started to dawn on me that maybe I could watch the movies through my Playstation 3.  Well it turns out that Netflix isn’t compatible with Playstation 3, only the X-Box 360.  Not to be deterred I continued to look for other options.  Then I found PlayOn

http://www.themediamall.com/playon which claimed to work with Netflix.  I installed the 15 day trial and in addition to Netflix I discovered a whole new way to watch video on demand.

Essentially PlayOn installs into the background of one of your ‘s and then processes the video from numerous sources on demand from the Playstation3.  We have a wireless network so it then broadcasts the video to our Playstation 3 wirelessly and the Playstation 3 puts it to the Plasma.

Hulu is included with the PlayOn and once I signed up for a Hulu account I now have access to many of the latest episodes of tons of TV shows, movies ect with very limited commercial,  It’s awesome.  Looking at a lot of the redundant programming we had from Cable we have dropped all but limited basic cable and have saved around $80/month just by installing a $30 piece of software.  Of course you do need high speed internet to be able to watch all these shows on Demand, so we still have a $50 bill per month for internet with our provider Comcast, however we would have that anyway.

Now I just need to figure out how to be able to add to my “Watch Instantly Queue” on Netflix from my iPhone.

Well I’ve recently upgraded my iTunes as I do every couple of months since the software prompts me to update on a regular basis.  I’ve been running iTunes with AirTunes and subsequently with two different Apple TV units.

First of all if you have a great stereo system definitely invest in some way to port music from your iTunes to your Stereo.  I recommend AirTunes as the AppleTV Unit which will work as well when streaming from iTunes on a computer through the AppleTV unit isn’t as solid as using the AirTunes.

If you aren’t one to like to put together individual playlists and if doing a shuffle through a particular genre doesn’t quite do it for you, you are going to love Genius.  I am rediscovering my music collection.  I pick one song that I like and then click on Genius and it puts together a list of songs from numerous albums that go together and fits the theme of the initial music.  Since my music tends to range from Jazz, to Pop to Electronic to Instrumental this has allowed me to listen to music in a whole different way.  It’s like having a DJ that likes the type of music that I love inside my computer.

Anyway if you haven’t used the Genius Sidebar definitely try it out…  It will take your listening to a whole different level.